Your daily dose of crap [Economics]

"jminer" (jminer) 10/16/2020 at 13:00 • Filed to: None

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As some of you may know, I’m a bit of a nerd and tend to follow key metrics regarding our economy and its performance. I tend not to follow the big shiny GDP or Stock Market number as they don’t give a great snapshot of how the economy for normal people is actually doing.

Every Thursday the labor department releases weekly job numbers. They’ve been bad since April when everything went to shit because of a global pandemic. Like historically bad with more than 800,000 people a week filing a new unemployment claim.

The numbers had been trending downward the last couple months, it used to be more than one million people a week and had been getting close to 800,000 here the last few weeks.

Yesterday though the number was 898,000 people filing a new unemployment claim - shit! That’s moving in the wrong direction.

Another bit if information on the unemployment rate, it only captures people that are unemployed and actively looking for work, !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! . This means that the large amount of people that have been furloughed don’t count in the unemployment rate. This doesn’t usually matter as it’s usually a small percentage of folks on unemployment, but not this time.

I just wanted to say that to put this next factoid in perspective. !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! .

If we take this number and compare it to the number of working age (18-64) adults in the US (206,000,000) we see that 1 in 8 working age Americans are on unemployment assistance of some sort. The number is likely actually higher as I’m not pulling out anyone who’s a primary caregiver, disabled, a student and so on.

These numbers are the worst since the great depression and for fucks sake should motivate our congress and president to quit tripping on their dicks and pass some fucking stimulus to help the vast amount of people hurt by this economic and health crisis!

Thanks for reading my far too boring and depressing lesson on the unemployment numbers and the quirks within it.

For Sweden > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:04

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Do people still think the BLS bureaucrats are part of a vast conspiracy to make President Trump appear less bad?

jminer > For Sweden 10/16/2020 at 13:09

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Th ere are some that do, but not most. It’s mostly a quirk in how we’ve historically reported in unemployment than anything the Trump administration is doing.

We have people that have been furloughed for 6 months which means they’re not getting a paycheck or healthcare but they’re not counted as unemployed as their employer will hire them back when it can.

This of course is also shifting as we saw Disney lay off 30k people who had been furloughed last week.

dieseldub > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:10

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Well said. Lots of finger pointing both ways happening. Trump says it’s the democrats, democrats say it’s Trump and Republicans. Just exhausting.

I’m sure there’s plenty of blame to go around.

Here’s to hoping the election ushers in some fresh blood that’s more willing to find common sense compromises with less special interests involved.

For Sweden > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:13

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30,000 people from one company in on the conspiracy . Madness.

krustywantout > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:16

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Our government doesn’t care about us. They care about preserving their party power. Go watch Nancy Pelosi yell at Wolf Blitzer on CNN. She talks like she knows what hurting Americans need. That lady hasn’t been poor since before I was born (over 40 years). And don’t get me started on Republicans and their act of everything is okay and the economy is fine. They would rather create more wealth inequality rather than a system that helps all Americans equally.

We need someone like Andrew Wang who actually has empathy for working class/lower income Americans because the Elitist Left and the Crazy Right definitely don’t give a dam.

This is the perfect time for a third party and that’s why I’m voting for the Green party. Let them get some votes so they can hopefully get more resources in future elections . I’m in MA so my vote doesn’t really help Trump or Biden but it will help a third party that can maybe mount some real changes in the future.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/13/nancy-pelosi-intv-stimulus-bill-trump-offer-coronavirus-tsr-vpx.cnn

ranwhenparked > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:28

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Its a good reminder that the “official” unemployment rate is only part of the story. In normal times, it’s close enough that it doesn’t make much difference, but these aren’t normal times. Many businesses in different sectors are still closed, those that are open have capacity restrictions, travel between many states is still effectively closed off, and international travel is almost nonexistent. Everyone wants to be ready to resume operations as quickly as possible as soon as they can, so many are reluctant to totally dismiss employees, but that just leaves their staff in limbo, not employed, not unemployed.

On the surface, 7.9% isn't great, but it isn't horrifying, since 5% has been considered statistical full employment for decades, and a lot of European countries are perpetually in the 10+ range even in a boom economy, but if the real number is in the range of 13% or worse, yeah, we're in for probably a lost decade, maybe longer. We're talking about the start of a new wave of multigenerational poverty here.

Nothing > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:33

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But my employer that’s doing layoffs next month just said that they’re doing them now because it’s a great time to be looking for work!

jminer > dieseldub 10/16/2020 at 13:35

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I’d say it’s more the senate Republicans fault than anything right now.  They’re basically unwilling to compromise or put forth any alternate bill.

jminer > Nothing 10/16/2020 at 13:36

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I hope that’s a joke, if not I’m very sorry for you.

It does depend on your job though.  I just took a new job and white collar workers have been mostly unaffected from this.  It’s folks in the service and hospitality sector that have been utterly decimated.

Nothing > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:40

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Actually, it’s not. All jobs that are being cut are white collar jobs.  And literally, that’s what one of the VPs told us when announcing the “displacements”.

nermal > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:40

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Remember that the airlines weren’t able to whack people until Oct 1 due to stimulus requirements. Also a buncha Disney layoffs. Those two alone account for ~80k jobs in the past two weeks .

Also, the House is controlled by Ds. There is zero chance that they will present a stimulus before the election that isn’t riddled with ridiculous partisan blurbs that they know the Rs in the Senate will never agree to. If the house Ds presented a simple bill that exclusively had $1200 Trump Bucks for anybody making under $100k, and nothing else, it would zoom thru the Senate and get signed by Trump same day, and be in everybody’s bank accounts within a week. The problem is that they won’t do that, because they are only interested in themselves and not the public, and won’t risk doing anything that shows Trump in a remotely positive light before the election.

It’s b usiness as usual. It’s also part of the reason why Trump got elected in the first place. 

jminer > ranwhenparked 10/16/2020 at 13:44

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In normal times the unemployment rate tells most of the story but it misses a large chunk today. Which why I usually focus on the weekly jobless claims as it captures most of what is happening in the short term.

An important distinction between the US and Europe is the safety net. In Europe don’t loose your healthcare or get evicted because you’re penniless now that you’ve lost your job.

The worst part of this is that it could have been so different an outcome.

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > krustywantout 10/16/2020 at 13:44

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I wrote a long rant about the problems of the two party system, but everytime I thought i t was done I found another point to rail on about... I was getting too wound up. So I just deleted it. I agree, but we have to make sure we don’t get another Trump term, and making him loose so bad it hurts the whole party is an important step to make sure something gets done to start righting all the damage he’s already done... We so badly need to get private money out of politics, and then the third (fourth, fifth, etc) parties would have a chance to climb up the power structure. 

jminer > krustywantout 10/16/2020 at 13:46

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You’re very much speaking the truth. One of the big issues is that anyone over 45 was raised on a perpetual fear of nuclear war with Russia so all the republicans have to do is mention socialism or communism and they get the votes.

When you talk actual policies or socialist programs that exist today the vast majority of citizens right and left support them.  That’s not what gets through though.

boredalways > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:48

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Unfortunately, I’m still one of those unemployed filing for assistance.

So. Much. Fun.

At least the IMF agrees with you, Jminer.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/15/imf-no-doubt-that-crucial-us-fiscal-stimulus-is-coming.html

jminer > Nothing 10/16/2020 at 13:50

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Well shit - hope you’re job is safe. The economy feels like it’s on a bit of a precipice and running on steam. The March stimulus was excellent and kept the economy going through July but is running on fumes now and the hope that congress and the president will do what’s needed. If that doesn’t happen though I’m afraid for a much wider impact here.

If you’re in an industry that’s unimpacted from the recession like grocery or tech it’s probably fine.  If you’re in most others jobs are definitely a bit harder to come by.

jminer > nermal 10/16/2020 at 13:54

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I disagree with some points there, the main roadblock is the republican senate. They haven’t been able to come to an agreement of any sort and haven’t passed a single bill as an alternate proposal.

Also $1200 check would help, but is far from what is needed. The PPP money is gone and the program needs expanded, state and local governments budgets are decimated and layoffs are starting, specific industries like air travel are burning cash like nobody’s business.

The president of the Fed Jerome Powell said it best ‘ the risks of overdoing it seem, for now, to be smaller’. Overdoing stimulus doesn’t waste significant amounts of money and would continue to boost the economy.

jminer > boredalways 10/16/2020 at 13:56

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Shit man that’s awful. Hope it doesn’t last much longer.

If you’re in tech I can maybe help with a contact or two depending on where you are , but I’m afraid that I am useless out of there.

krustywantout > jminer 10/16/2020 at 13:57

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You are 100% correct. P olitics, like religious groups, use fear to get control their masses. Democrats also use fear to get what they want , especially reproductive rights. I’m not saying they are not important, just saying that it is used as a tool to get their constituents riled up.

krustywantout > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t 10/16/2020 at 14:03

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I don’t like Biden and am less than thrilled with Harris but I can’t stand all of the lying and narcissism of Trump. He knew the virus was dangerous and could have taken actions to quell the hysteria behind masks and restrictions . Instead of leading the country down a path that could meet his economic goals while keeping everyone safe, he went hard right and screwed everyone. I don’t agree with all of the government restrictions but I know we need to have a middle ground to keep people safe. People also forget how he botched up the whole PPE proc urment and distribution when the pandemic hit. When states have to secretly bring in PPE from other countries, that is not good management.

Jb boin > jminer 10/16/2020 at 14:03

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In case you don’t already know it, the OECD website has nice and simple to read stats on it’s members.

This one is quite simple and practical to use.

Chariotoflove > nermal 10/16/2020 at 14:04

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It is. People were sick of exactly what we still experience. And Hillary was a great symbol of the insider politician.

The problem that I think most of the discussion here and 99.9% of elsewhere misses is that “stimulus” of the kind that government can provide is temporary and relatively ineffective. It looks good politically, but all it really does is increase out debt. I’m all for it in a targeted way to help people while they get jobs, but what we really need are more jobs. Government is not equipped to create them, Green New Deal and D’s promises to “invest in America” notwithstanding.

Nothing > jminer 10/16/2020 at 14:05

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Thanks, I think I’ll be ok personally. My team is slated to be disproportionally affected, though. At least severance packages in the past have been fairly strong, and hope that they are again for those that are impacted.

jminer > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t 10/16/2020 at 14:05

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This topic is so easy to get very upset about, it feels impossible to change yet most see how it needs to change.

I think we should ban all election and political advertising period. That would help with a lot of the misinformation and misdirection.  Also combined primaries which should help push all candidates towards a saner middle instead of the most radical candidate beating the others for the base.

jminer > Jb boin 10/16/2020 at 14:06

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I’ll admit to too much ignorance about global economics on my part.  Thanks for that link though, I’ll dig into it.

BeaterGT > jminer 10/16/2020 at 14:08

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And then there’s the whole underreporting of Covid deaths, but let’s not get carried away with morbidity...

Chariotoflove > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t 10/16/2020 at 14:13

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Look, I think these discussions need to get away from the R’s are the demons and bad actors and don’t care about people schtick. Because D’s are just as bad. The reason that this is a problem is that it tends to lull people into inaction when it matters. If you just blame R’s, for instance, then you tend to think that if you can just get the D’s a victory, then it will get better. You get that victory, and then you get complacent. Trump is not responsible for our economic woes, and so just getting him out of office won’t fix them. It goes the other way too. Pelosi et al are your demons if you are a R, but getting rid of them and “clearing the swamp” won’t fix everything because the R party has gotten addicted to overspending and deficits almost as bad since the Reagan era. That’s why the Tea Party revolt started from within the R party proper.

jminer > BeaterGT 10/16/2020 at 14:16

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Yeah... That’s a whole other depressing conversation.  If someone hasn’t tested positive for Covid they’re not counted in the death toll even if they died of Covid.

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > jminer 10/16/2020 at 14:17

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Yeah that’s me and my wife, we both have jobs but we can’t do them. I’m in a union and nobody knows when we can go back. 

avalonian > jminer 10/16/2020 at 14:24

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I literally opened your article today on my lunch break. And got a call once my lunch was over that I am being laid off. Its insanity out here

avalonian > jminer 10/16/2020 at 14:25

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Damn, thats alot of people. SHEESH 

fintail > BeaterGT 10/16/2020 at 14:29

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I trust data from some states as much as I do from China or Russia.

jminer > avalonian 10/16/2020 at 14:42

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Fuck - that’s awful. Sorry.

I hope you can find something soon.  I was lucky enough to change jobs last week but a lot of people have a hell of a time finding something right now.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > jminer 10/16/2020 at 14:43

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Biggest thing is nothing is going to go “back to normal” until the risks of Covid are reduced. With cases spiking and hospitalizations/deaths bound to increase, a another shutdown, Whether imposed, or through lack of consumer confidence/fear   is near certain. Then we’ll be in super shit.

The rest is at best a band aid and worse  a circle jerk

jminer > avalonian 10/16/2020 at 14:43

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Yeah - that’s definitely a lot of people. The airlines are saying they’ll lay off that many (or more) if they don’t get more loans too.

jminer > 415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) 10/16/2020 at 14:44

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Shit - that just sucks. I’m lucky enough to have had a job I have been able to do remotely (and an employer willing to have me do so) and change jobs to another in a similar position.

Hope you both get to go back to work soon.

krustywantout > Chariotoflove 10/16/2020 at 14:45

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Tea Party started off with good intentions and then flew off the rails after Trump . Both parties need new efficiency and efficacy audits for their programs because of all the money wasted on bad programs. Our country doesn’t need bigger budgets or more government , it needs to do more with what we have. Lastly to your point that it not a R or D thing, people forget how horrible D’s handle the legislative process with the Affordable Care Act. The whole “P ass it to read it” stance still haunts Congress today and, in my opinion, is why we’re in this mess. 

boredalways > jminer 10/16/2020 at 15:02

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Thanks. It’s lasted for almost 10 full months now. What’s the worse that could happen?

avalonian > jminer 10/16/2020 at 15:18

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No worries, I’ll take a little time off for a few weeks and get back to the hustle and bustle. I did have an interview and got the job. Now just waiting on the start date. Which will probably be in the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, I will not get paid out on my vacation days or sicks. Thats the suckiest part. But the world goes round and thank God for my health!

jminer > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 10/16/2020 at 15:21

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Exactly, which is why the government should have stepped in with strict restrictions and contact tracing which would keep us in a much more functional yet safe place.

There’s a lot of worry on this happening at a time when people are getting complacent and flu season is right upon us.  The next few months have the potential to get very bad.

jminer > boredalways 10/16/2020 at 15:21

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Yep, that’s pretty much it right there.

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > Chariotoflove 10/16/2020 at 15:29

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Trump *is* at least partly responsible for our economic woes, his poor treatment of economic and political allies has impacted i nternational trade (which in and of itself is nit evil, but has been manipulated by international capitalism to repress workers and enrich owners, and frankly China *IS* a problem, but Trump’s handling of the situation is so godawful it hurts to watch) a nd stirred unrest and etc... But even more critical is how his rhetoric has emboldened white nationalists and hate groups in the US (and world as a whole, as like it or not, we here in the US are role models for others), and perhaps most critically how his administration has denied climate change, destroyed environmental regulations and protections, and made it ever more mainstream to ignore science in the name of profit and feelings. I acknowledge that I come from a place of privilege in saying this: the Trump administration’s damage to our economy (which has been exacerbated by covid) is the least of my worries. And as much as the short term pay check-to-paycheck, profit- hungry, this- quarter- is- the- only- quarter- that- maters attitude makes it hard for people to feel it, it should probably be EVERYONE's lowest priority when discussing reasons to ditch Trump. I don't have children, and sometimes I feel like I'm one of the few who gives a fuck about what we're leaving for our next generations. 

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > krustywantout 10/16/2020 at 15:36

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Trump uses the new cycle to his advantage by doing more and more frequent crazy things to distract from the crazy thing he did yesterday... Who even remembers that he used executive orders to open ANWAR to oil drilling, back pedal on emissions and fuel economy standards, reduce pollution restrictions for coal and oil producers, whithdraw from the Paris climate accord, etc...?

The man has done SO much damage without looking at his Supreme and Circuit Court appointments and his destabilizing effect on international security and economic alliances. As much as I am not a fan of the Biden/Harris ticket, Trump has to go, and thanks to our fucked up situation, they’re the only viable alternative (short of revolution). 

BigBlock440 > jminer 10/16/2020 at 15:43

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That’s nuts, we just gave everybody $1/hr raise just to try and get people to actually come to work, and have been trying to hire 50 people for the past few months. I guess we’re not in a big area for trade shows and sporting events/concerts though, so we don’t get a lot of those jobless looking.

jminer > BigBlock440 10/16/2020 at 15:46

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It’s really a tale of two economies.  Some sectors and areas are booming, others are decimated.

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > krustywantout 10/16/2020 at 16:00

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Our government has managed to fuck shit up so bad... Not to mention the continuing insistence on spending insane amounts on the military without efficiency or  cost/benefit analysis.

camarov6rs > krustywantout 10/16/2020 at 16:21

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Lots of people ask what he should have done differently and I always come back to the fact the distribution and procurement of emergency supplies seemed screwed.

Why after 3 years was the national stockpile not fully stocked? I can fully accept that the previous admin might have left it a bit empty but we had 3 years to fill it!

Why were states forced to bring supplies in through different channels? We should be concentrating our resources and buying power to bring the largest shipments possible. We should not be confiscating supply’s from states that were able to find some supplies only to have distributors sell it back to us.

Why were states bidding each other up to get supplies? Which idiot thought it was awesome for the feds to procure the supplies overseas using taxpayer money, ship it here only to give it to resellers? The tax payers should not be buying the same item multiple times with additional mark ups along the way.

For a “ business”  oriented person to not understand the problems with this distribution I can only assume they were ignorant or maliciously intended.

Chariotoflove > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t 10/16/2020 at 16:42

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So this is a problem I see frequently, that of conflating generalized hate of Trump as a person with policy issues. People bring up racism, climate change, etc. Those are conversations to have, but they are different conversations.

Staying on this issue, I think the trade relationships are important, but I don’t see trade relationships as personal relationships, but at business ones. That is to say, Trump’s propensity to play hard ball with countries like he does with business partners, while distasteful, won’t estrange us from those partners the way pissing off a friend can destroy the friendship. The new trade agreement he pushed through to replace NAFTA was generally seen as a win for his trade policy, and was passed by the D congress. The issue of tariff wars that he has started can legit be called scary and a problem, but I don’t think we can say it has overall harmed the economy. The economy was going gangbusters as a whole before covid.

Now, as for income disparity, and all the societal problems that go with it, and the short term outlook of our corporations that inhibits long term vision, that’s all a problem. However, it was there pre-Trump, and it will remain when he is gone. He didn’t bring it to ascendancy with his presidency or even propagate it more than it would have been. Neither will electing Joe Biden or anyone else inhibit it. Remember that Biden has been in federal government for decades in two branches and has never appreciably affected the seemingly inexorable march toward this bi-phasic economic separation we see in society.

What I am saying is, don’t look for the solutions in the White House, or even in senior  Congressional leadership. Look for new leadership in Congress, but more importantly, look to state and local, community leaders for new ideas and opportunities.  Look to education to foster people's new ideas. These are more local issues.

Chariotoflove > krustywantout 10/16/2020 at 16:44

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Agreed, the Tea Party has largely been absorbed and assimilated. Resistance is futile.

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > Chariotoflove 10/16/2020 at 17:42

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If it weren’t for the Republican party (majority of) r allying around Trump as the figure head of thier party and backing him in virtually everything he does or says even Mitch McConnell couldn’t have convinced them to push through as much garbage legislation as they have. You’re right about supporting local government, but I have not conflated hatred of Trump with policy. His policy is awful, and hateable. He has made it entirely clear that if it keeps him in power (and the headlines) he will support white nationalists and biggots and religious fundamentalists... This *IS* a policy statement. And it’s BAD policy. He has also used his exe cutive mandate to dismantle a surprising amount of policy related to environmental controls that many people didn’t even realize were at risk until he used questionable interpretation of rules, coupled with packing his cabinet with cronies to tear it apart. The fact of the mater is that the position of President of The United States is a more powerful position than most people realize. Partly because, up until now no non-war president has taken such ruthless advantage of thr powers afford to him. Trump MUST be removed from power, and the Republicans MUST be made to understand how damaging and against the will of the majority of the people thier support for him was. The drift to authoritarianism and fundamentalism in this country needs to be stoped and reversed before we find just how close to Nazi Germany we can get before we stop putting just illegal immigrants and concentration camps, and start hauling productive citizens in to them too. One of the few rays of light in this administration is that he's offended the military so much that I doubt they'd stand behind an attempt by Trump to seize power. No mater how well his private DHS army loves him, they are NOT as well armed. However, I don't want a military coup either. 

BigBlock440 > jminer 10/16/2020 at 20:13

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A few months back, I read the average wage increased something like 8%.  We were still struggling with attendance and hiring, I figured it was wages mostly increased that much.  Someone I was talking to floated the idea that all of the low-wage jobs were gone, so by default the average had to go up.  Could be just as valid, I don’t know at this point which one has more affect though.

Jb boin > ranwhenparked 10/16/2020 at 20:45

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You also have to know that the numbers can’t be directly compared as in the US there are many peoples who are not listed as unemployed because it’s not useful to them.

In Europe, all the countries have unemployment benefits and different advantages if they are officially listed as searching for a job so most peoples not working list themselves as unemployed .

In most countries , there is also the fact that there is sensibly less precarious and part-time jobs and a part of the economy is not officially declared to avoid to pay taxes and these peoples are not counted as working .

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > jminer 10/16/2020 at 21:35

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its going to be a shitshow. It has fully spread to every corner.

Not seeing the shitshow in china was unforgivable.

Still downplaying it when it was in Italy a couple weeks ahead. unforgivable.

saying it just a coastal problem unforgivable.

It was only a matter of time till to hit the south and now upper midwest hard. It makes me so anglry instead of minor changes. nope open the taps, open up. Everywhere numbers are going up. my state was doing pretty good, but we’ve had spikes because people are getting stupid and complacnet is the perfect description. 

MrSnrub > jminer 10/16/2020 at 21:44

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I don’t understand why Pelosi rejected Trump’s $1.8tn stimulus offer. The most likely outcome if it gets passed by the House is that it would die in the Senate, and the blame for that would fall on McConnell (who is also up for re-election!). I guess the calculus is that if it actually passes, it makes Trump look good just before election day, but I think that’s a risk worth taking. If Biden wins and Democrats don’t manage to take the Senate, there probably won’t be any stimulus at all, ever, and then we’re really fucked.

jminer > MrSnrub 10/16/2020 at 21:57

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I’m very much with you that she should have accepted it. I think the calculus is definitely part don’t give Trump a get out of jail free card for fucking this entire thing up but it’s also very much a not willing to give up on the tough things.

If they just passed an expanded unemployment and stimulus check as a skinny bill the republicans would have less than 0 motivation to negotiate further on some of the other things that need done like assistance for state and local governments.

I’m afraid you’re right if the Republicans keep the house with Mitch in charge . It’ll be like in 2010 when the Republicans took control of the house and put the brakes on anything having anything at all to do with the recovery of the economy. The cutoff of stimulus so early into the recovery from a deep recession is a major reason   why the recovery was so slow.

You have to love the Republican Party that both forced sequestration which was a 10% cut in budgets all across the board then passed a gigantic tax cut for corporations which ballooned the government budget shortfall to the highest point ever (until this year). Of course hypocrisy is nothing new for politicians, republicans in particular .

Chariotoflove > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t 10/16/2020 at 21:59

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There’s an awful lot there, but almost none of it addresses whether Donald Trump’s economic policies caused the economic disparities we experience or the COVID-induced economic slow down we are suffering.

All I was trying to talk about is that I think it is a mistake to blame our economic problems on the Trump administration. They were all there long before he came on scene. Not recognizing that is the first step to not doing anything about them.

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > Chariotoflove 10/16/2020 at 22:13

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Y es, the economy is a systemic issue, you’ll get no argument from me there. Did Trump make it worse than it already was? Yes, probably. My fi nan cial advisor hates the way things since he took the presidency. Everything is in flux all the time, nothing is predictable, you never know which tweet will cause which trade partner or foreign power to get angry about what, nor which company will scramble to react to something that will be back pedaled on in the following week. The volatility is INSANE.

My bigger point though, is that trump must go for *MANY* reasons, and arguing weather his economic policy is the “Entire reason we’re here” or not misses the point that there are 76 (at least) *OTHER* reasons to boot the idiot out of power and send his supporters a message that clearly says “Fuck you, and the rose you rode in on”.

Chariotoflove > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t 10/16/2020 at 22:21

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I’m staying with your first paragraph. To be clear, I’m not dismissing your other concerns at all. I’m just trying to avoid getting sucked into a huge, multifactor discussion on Trump’s many evils and sins.

I just don’t see how he has damaged the economy as a whole. We thought his tweets would send things spinning uncontrollably and that his tariff threats will cause horrible trade wars that would hurt our manufacturing and stunt our  economy. But in the end, all the bluster and yelling has amounted to not much either way. The markets were in a bull mode. Employment was pretty good. Manufacturing didn’t miraculously reappear for blue collar folks in middle America (don’t know who thought it ever could). Income disparities stayed wide as they have been growing for decades. Trump didn’t crater things any more than Biden will fix them, which is to say not at all.

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > Chariotoflove 10/16/2020 at 22:58

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As someone who is invested heavily in progressive energy technology and non-blue-chip stocks I disagree. The volatility has allowed “bear” investors who can absorb ri sk to profit in the market, but remember: “the stock market is not the economy”. Smaller businesses and those not blessed by Trump’s policy have been hurting since 2016 (ok, mid 2017) . The administration’s policy has selectively benefited traditional blue chip and energy companies at the expense of developing markets. My sister-in-law works as a bio-chemical-engineer for a pharmaceutical start up... Now doesn’t that sound like a traditional economic stronghold? You’d be surprised. Investors are targeting what Trump flouts and talks about, science and bio-science in particular (beyond multi-national pharma giants who are benefiting from greater acceptance of monopolistic practices) are suffering a contraction and loss of funding under Trump - Sa id sister-in -law was furloughed BEFORE covid due to lack of funding, and has interestingly got back to full time employment only recently as investors suddenly realized the value of what her company was doing - His economic and policy choices have lead to a depressed technology sector (making us less competitive in the world market) and a further conglomeration of value in the traditional top-tier companies (and thier owners). We’re also creating a less diverse economy and making ourselves more susceptible to trauma like Covid. This has all accelerated under Trump. A nd do we even have to talk about how poorly the administration (and I use the term very intentionally, as Trump is just one man, in one position, but he has stacked his cabinet full of cronies and used his influence to twist the response of other government agencies he doesn’t have direct control over) has handled the idea of stimulus and emergency redistribution? It’s a totally incompetent shit-show. Did Trump single handedly get us here? No. But see my first paragraph above: the volatility induced since the Trump administration began fucking with shit has destabilized smaller companies, disproportionately benefited top-tier investors and wealthy compan ies, and systematically d estroyed diversity in our economy. Mergers and take overs of small businesses, especially in food and health related sectors well above norms, and this hurts everyone who isn't part of the 1%. Maybe it was already heading that way under prior administrations, but this one has done nothing to attempt to slow it, quite the contrary, and that's bad economic policy. 

nermal > jminer 10/17/2020 at 11:31

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The R’s have presented standalone PPP funding, the D’s turned that down because they want one big juicy package instead.

Sending checks to people with < $100k incomes, and especially < $50k incomes provides an immediate boost to the economy, as they are most likely to spend it immediately . Same goes for payroll tax relief for the same concept . A lot of PPP funding went to companies that honestly didn’t need it - see the news stories of the places that returned their $$$ after getting public pressure.

The key takeaways from this year: 1) C urrent politics are politics as usual, and will continue to be so regard less of the upcoming election results. 2) Business executives, upper management, business owners - The top tier of the personal financial scale will be fine, as they always are. The regular jagoffs at the bottom are at the mercy of those at the top. For best results, don’t be a regular jagoff.

nermal > Chariotoflove 10/17/2020 at 11:40

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In summary, “The economy is an asshole”. There are a bazillion little pieces that can individually turn into butterfly effects on their own. This year we had a lot of them.

The government can’t directly create private sector jobs as much as it can steer policy to encourage others. For startups, m ake it easier to start a business, get funding, get useful education, etc. For existing businesses, m ake it easier to actually do business, leading to growth and more hiring. Things like cutting business taxes and regulations help with that. 

Chariotoflove > nermal 10/17/2020 at 13:33

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The caveat is that it’s dangerous to try and manipulate people’s behavior through the tax code. See above mentioned butterfly effect. People are unpredictable animals, even in the aggregate, Hari Seldon’s  theories notwithstanding.

Chariotoflove > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t 10/17/2020 at 19:17

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I think it’s fair to disagree with a lot of the way the Trump administration has handled regulation of business. I don’t like the way the FCC has cratered net neutrality under him, for one example. He is very permissive of mergers. We should recognize, however, that the permissive trend in M&A has been going on since the Reagan administration, and reached new heights during the Obama/Biden tenure. The consolidation of the airline industry is one high profile example that comes to mind. Obama did seem to repent of some of that policy toward the end of his term, but nothing came of it. This is all to say that I don’t think we can lay the state of M&A entirely at Trump’s feet, but he hasn’t done anything to slow it.

I believe you about your SIL, and I’m glad to hear she got back on her feet. My personal experience is that I have family who run a small investment firm, and they have thrived over the last four years. They are avid Trumpists of the type that is hard for me to listen to for the same reason I can’t listen to all the irrational Trump bashing I hear. I also have several close family who are small business owners and have done quite well over the last four years. Perhaps it matters what market and region one is in?They are Trump leaning. For me personally, my income is relatively fixed, being a university professor, but a huge part of my survival depends on successfully competing for government grants. That’s been tough for the last 20 years, and it hasn’t changed with administrations over that time. I also don’t expect it will soon.

So, in the end, I’m just left with what I can read to add to personal experience and that of those close to me. I come up with the same thing. Trump hasn’t been the economic savior he marketed himself to be, but neither is he the bogeyman many  seem to think.